Changes in California regulations and reduced subsidies lead to a sharp decline in solar sales, impacting the industry nationwide.

California, once a leader in the US solar industry, is now facing a significant sales slowdown that poses a threat to the widespread adoption of solar power. Installers are cutting jobs, bankruptcies are on the rise, and even major players like Enphase Energy Inc. are feeling the impact. The decline in sales comes after changes in California regulations that reduced the amount of money solar homeowners earn when they sell excess electricity to the grid. Coupled with higher interest rates, these changes have made solar systems more expensive for consumers. The repercussions of this sales decline are being felt not only in California but also across the country, as more states trim their own subsidies.

California’s Role in the Solar Industry

California has long been at the forefront of the US solar industry. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger launched an initiative in 2006 to install solar panels on one million rooftops. The state became home to major solar companies like SunPower and Enphase, as well as numerous installers. The industry was seen as a growing business that could make a positive impact on the environment and the community.

Changes in California Regulations

California regulators have been discussing scaling back payments for excess power sent to the grid, known as net energy metering, for years. These changes finally took effect in April, reducing the incentives for solar homeowners. Electric utilities argued that these incentives increased bills for non-solar households, with California customers without solar paying an additional $5 billion annually on their electric bills. The California Public Utilities Commission, which made the change, stated that the new, lower incentives better reflect the actual value of solar energy exported to the grid and align subsidies with those of other states.

Impact on the Solar Industry

The sales decline in California, which accounts for the largest share of US solar installations, is a setback for the industry at a time when President Joe Biden is pushing for the nation’s transition to clean energy. More than a dozen other states have also reduced their subsidies, citing increased utility rates for non-solar homeowners. As a result, the rapid growth of residential solar installations across the country is expected to slow. BloombergNEF forecasts only 5% annual growth for the rest of the decade, compared to the average 32% growth per year from 2019 to 2022.

Job Losses and Bankruptcies

The sales decline has led to job losses and bankruptcies within the solar industry. Installers like HES Solar have seen sales plummet, resulting in layoffs. The California Solar & Storage Association estimates that the industry is on the brink of losing 17,000 jobs in the state. Solar equipment-maker Enphase Energy Inc. announced workforce cuts and factory closures, citing California’s woes as a contributing factor.

The Role of Government Policy

The current slump in the rooftop solar business highlights its dependence on government policy, even after hopes that it could thrive on economics alone. The industry remains vulnerable to changes in regulations and subsidies, which can have a significant impact on sales and job stability. Some installers and environmental advocates argue that the changes in California’s regulations are a power play by utilities and regulators to block competition and make solar less affordable.

The Future of Solar

While some in the industry hope that the sales decline is temporary and that growth will return soon, the impact of slowing sales is creating a headwind for the solar industry. The industry’s reliance on government policy and the need for homeowners to invest in battery systems to save money on utility bills have raised concerns about affordability. The California Public Utilities Commission designed its new net energy metering rules to encourage the use of battery systems, but the high cost of batteries compared to solar panels alone poses a financial challenge for homeowners.

Conclusion: California’s solar industry, once a leader in the US, is now facing a significant sales slowdown that threatens widespread adoption. Changes in regulations and reduced subsidies have led to job losses, bankruptcies, and a decline in sales across the state. The impact is not limited to California, as other states have also reduced their subsidies. The future of the solar industry remains uncertain, with concerns about affordability and the industry’s dependence on government policy. As the nation aims to transition to clean energy, the challenges faced by the solar industry in California serve as a reminder of the complexities involved in achieving widespread adoption.